CD 18 Poll

The Hobby Poll on the Congressional District 18 Democratic Party Primary race came out yesterday.  Here are the first three paragraphs of the poll description:

Three candidates are competing in the U.S. Congressional District 18 (CD-18) primary election: 15-term Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee and challengers Amanda Edwards and Robert Slater. The CD-18 survey population of 450 has a margin of error of +/-4.6% and is representative of those CD-18 registered voters who are likely to vote in the March 2024 Democratic primary election.

Black likely voters account for 47% of this survey population of likely CD-18 Democratic primary voters, white likely voters for 34%, Latino likely voters for 15% and others for 4%. Women represent 58% of this population, men 41% and others 1%. Likely voters between the ages of 18 and 44 account for 26% of this population, those ages 45 to 64 for 39% and those 65 and older for 35%. More than four-fifths (82%) of the population identifies as Democrat, with 15% identifying as Independent and 3% unsure of their partisan identification or identifying with either the Republican Party or with a minor party.

Figure 4 provides the vote intention of likely voters in the CD-18 Democratic primary election. Jackson Lee holds a narrow 43% to 38% lead over Edwards, with 3% intending to vote for Slater, and 16% of these likely voters still undecided. If the population of likely voters is restricted to those who are the very most likely to vote, Jackson Lee’s vote intention rises to 45% and Edwards’ vote intention rises to 39%, while Slater remains at 3% and the proportion of undecided voters drops to 13%. The following analysis focuses on the larger population of 450 likely voters.

It is pretty obvious that Jackson Lee’s lousy campaign for mayor has done some damage to her. She has been in office for 29 years and she is in the 43%-45% range in polling in a Democratic Party Primary two and a half weeks before Election Day.  I am not surprised. Another neighbor down the street from me put up an Amanda Edwards yard sign a few days ago. The featured photo is Edwards mail and lit that has been put in my mailbox or on my door.

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Here is the polling description for State Senate District 15 Democratic Party Primary race:

Six candidates are competing in the open-seat Texas Senate District 15 (SD-15) Democratic primary election: Michelle Anderson Bonton, Alberto “Beto” Cardenas, Molly Cook, Jarvis Johnson, Todd Litton and Karthik Soora. The seat became open when the former Dean of the Texas Senate, John Whitmire, was elected mayor of the City of Houston in December of 2023. The SD-15 survey population of 750 has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% and is representative of those SD-15 registered voters who are likely to vote in the March 2024 Democratic primary election.

White likely voters account for 54% of this survey population of likely SD-15 Democratic primary voters, Black likely voters for 25%, Latino likely voters for 15% and others for 6%. Women represent 55% of this population and men 45%. Likely voters between the ages of 18 and 44 account for 28% of this population, those ages 45 to 64 for 38% and those 65 and older for 34%. More than four-fifths (83%) of the population identifies as Democrat, with 14% identifying as Independent and 3% unsure of their partisan identification or identifying with either the Republican Party or with a minor party.

Figure 7 provides the vote intention in the SD-15 Democratic primary election. Cook (18%) and Johnson (18%) hold a very narrow lead over Litton (14%) in vote intention, with the other three candidates trailing further behind this trio with a vote intention of 6% (Cardenas), 5% (Soora) and 2% (Anderson Bonton). Almost two out of five (37%) likely voters remain unsure of how they will vote in this contest. If the population of likely voters is restricted to those who are the very most likely to vote, Cook’s vote intention rises to 20%, Johnson’s remains at 18%, Litton’s rises to 16%, Cardenas’s drops to 5% and those of Soora and Anderson Bonton remain at 5% and 2%, respectively, with the proportion of unsure voters falling to 34%. The following analysis focuses on the larger population of 750 likely voters.

All I can say is stay tuned.

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Today is Go Texan Day. It is rodeo time in H-Town. The Barbecue Cook-off started yesterday. The trail riders are converging on Memorial Park today. The parade is tomorrow morning. Yesterday, Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo Board Chair Pat Mann Phillips, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, and Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez inaugurated a new thrill ride at the Rodeo Carnival. The performances and rodeo competition gets going next week.

Commentary is not a big rodeo guy. I haven’t gone to a performance in like close to twenty years. The rodeo is certainly one of a kind and it brings a lot of H-Town folks together. Enjoy it, y’all.

Have a safe weekend, cowgirls and cowboys.