Dad on 2
As we head into early voting in person next Monday, see this poll that came out in the CD 18 Special Election. Here is from Houston Public Media:
Acting Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards lead the field of 16 candidates in the Nov. 4 special election for Texas’ 18th Congressional District.
That’s the finding of the latest survey conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. Early voting in the contest starts Monday, Oct. 20.
The poll released Thursday shows Menefee with the support of 27% of likely voters, followed by Edwards at 23% and state Rep. Jolanda Jones at 15%. All three are Democrats.
“I think we were expecting Menefee and Edwards to be near the top,” said Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, who co-authored the survey. “But what was somewhat noteworthy is that Jolanda Jones trails and is clearly in a second-tier category compared to Menefee and Edwards. That is, it’s not really a three-candidate race right now. It’s a two-candidate race.”
Texas election law requires a runoff between the top two contenders if no candidate wins more than 50% in the first round of voting.
Previous surveys had shown Jones as a more formidable contender against Menefee and Edwards, potentially splitting the Black vote in a district that has elected Black Democrats to Congress for more than 50 years. While the district’s voting population has recently shifted to a Hispanic plurality, Blacks still make up a larger proportion of likely voters, particularly in special elections that typically garner low turnouts.
“The thing that is really hurting Jones,” Mark Jones said, “is her near complete lack of support among white voters. Only 7% intend to vote for her. She’s relatively comparable in terms of support among Black voters to Edwards and Menefee, but when it comes to white voters, she trails by a substantial margin. But she also does a little worse among Hispanic voters.”
The survey finds that, in a runoff between Menefee and Edwards, the two frontrunners are statistically in a dead heat.
Here is the entire Houston Public Media story: Christian Menefee, Amanda Edwards lead TX-18 field in final poll before start of early voting – Houston Public Media.
We will know in 19 days if the polls were accurate. I will say that I have received multiple mail pieces from Amanda and Menefee and only one piece from Jolanda. On KPRC Channel 2 News, I have seen Amanda and Menefee ads, nada from Jolanda. Only Amanda’s campaign has knocked on my door. Stay tuned!
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I was watching KPRC Channel 2 News yesterday, and in honor of Hispanic Heritage Month, anchor Sofia Ojeda authored a story on LULAC’s Little School of the 400. I have mentioned before that my Dad, Tony Campos, helped organize the Little School close to 70 years ago when my Dad worked for then LULAC National President Felix Tijerina. The Channel 2 news story ran the featured photo that includes, left to right, Texas Gov. Price Daniel, Felix, my Dad, and Alfred Hernandez. Pretty cool.
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The Chron sports section hard copy today has a story on the Astros left field position.